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04/12/2018 12:01 AMOld Saybrook’s property, casualty, auto, and workers’ compensation insurance carrier is the Connecticut Interlocal Risk Management Association (CIRMA). Most towns and cities in Connecticut are stakeholders in this company. I am a member of CIRMA’s Operating & Underwriting subcommittee, where we look at improving existing coverages but also seek out the issues of tomorrow that may affect our communities. Drones were an issue for a while and cyber crime is always an issue.
Two weeks ago, the subcommittee was presented with a PowerPoint on autonomous vehicles (AV), and what that might look like in our towns in 5 or 10 years. I have to say that if I had seen this presentation just two years ago, I probably would have laughed it off, but not now and not with all the innovation that is occurring in this field. There are currently 44 (!) companies developing autonomous vehicles and many of these companies are acquiring companies that are developing the necessary technology that will drive these vehicles. AVs are already on the road in 13 states (as we have seen from recent news events) and there is legislation that addresses AVs in 20 states.
There are five levels of AVs: 1-driver assistance, 2-partial automation, 3-conditional automation, 4-high automation, and 5-fully autonomous. While a lot of today’s vehicles are equipped with level 1 and 2 technology (lane assistance and automatic braking), many believe we will skip level 3 and go into levels 4 and 5 quickly. Why? Because last year there were 35,000 fatalities related to car accidents and more than two million injuries; with fully autonomous vehicles, there is expected to be an 80- to 90 percent reduction in both categories. With fewer accidents should come lower premiums.
Predictions are that car ownership will plummet as autonomous vehicles become roving rideshare vehicles. This new world (if it happens) could have major ripple effects throughout the economy. Personal injury lawyers will have less work, and are already feeling the pinch due to the driver-assisted technology that currently exists. Auto body shops will see fewer accidents and therefore fewer customers. Parking garages and emergency rooms will have less vehicle and human traffic, and municipalities that tax cars will have fewer vehicles to tax. There will be many fewer traffic tickets to write and less need for first responders (ambulance and firefighters) to attend to accidents. All those areas that we currently use for parking may not be needed due to fewer vehicles on the road. That may mean large redevelopment of urban areas.
Ultimately, the real push is for driverless trucks. Truck driving is the most common job in the United States and there is a huge shortage of drivers. Companies are investing massive resources to have driverless semis on the road in a few short years. If most or all these vehicles are electric, there will be little need for gas stations, but also much less pollution. People in the know say this is our future. Do you believe it?
And now, let’s talk flying cars…